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Research report · Vulnerability research and technical analysis

Patched is not clean: repeat exploitation, compromise and end-of-life risk in edge devices

What 196 confirmed attacks on firewalls, VPNs and gateways since January 2023 say about closing an edge vulnerability, for leaders and security teams who own internet-facing devices.

Report
EFF-RR-2026-009
Published
12 November 2026
Version
1.0
Authors
Effycace Research Team
Reading time
13 min
Distribution
TLP:CLEAR

1Executive summary

Our earlier report, EFF-RR-2026-001, showed that internet-facing network devices are a growing share of the vulnerabilities CISA confirms as exploited, and that attackers reach them within days. It ended with a warning that patching alone does not remove an attacker who got in first. This report examines that warning.

We took the 196 edge-device entries that the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) added to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) catalogue between 1 January 2023 and 10 November 2026. We grouped them into 69 product families, coded the response CISA asked for in each entry, and flagged products that are out of support. We then set the results beside five public cases in which attackers kept access to a device after it was patched or reset. The pattern is consistent: the same product lines are exploited again and again, CISA increasingly asks organisations to look for compromise rather than only patch, and a fixed device is not necessarily a clean one.

Key findings

  1. The same product lines keep being exploited. 75.5% of edge entries (148 of 196) belong to the 31 product families that were exploited in more than one separate wave. The median gap between waves was 216 days.

    High confidenceSee the evidence

  2. Ransomware risk sits in those repeat targets. CISA records known ransomware use for 27.0% of entries in repeatedly exploited families, against 4.2% in families exploited only once.

    Moderate confidenceSee the evidence

  3. CISA tells organisations to check for compromise about ten times as often for edge devices. 8.2% of edge entries carry entry-specific instructions to look for compromise, hunt or follow an emergency directive, against 0.8% of other entries. Edge devices are 21.5% of the catalogue but 18 of the 29 entries (62.1%) with this kind of guidance.

    High confidenceSee the evidence

  4. Patching does not reliably remove an attacker. In five documented cases from 2023 to 2025 at Citrix, Ivanti, Fortinet, SonicWall and Cisco, access survived a patch, an upgrade or a factory reset.

    Moderate confidenceSee the evidence

  5. End-of-life risk is mostly a home and small-office router problem. 63.6% of consumer and small-office edge entries (14 of 22) concern products that are or could be end-of-life, against 4.0% of enterprise entries.

    Moderate confidenceSee the evidence

What this means

Boards and executives
Treat a repeatedly exploited edge product as a supplier risk, not only a patching task. Ask how many of the organisation’s internet-facing devices belong to product lines with a history of repeat exploitation, and whether replacement has been considered.
Security leaders
Change the definition of “closed” for an exploited edge vulnerability from “patched” to “patched and checked for compromise”, and fund the logging, integrity tools and forensic capacity that the check needs.
Engineering and operations
Prepare a compromise-check runbook for each edge product before the next advisory: what to collect, which vendor integrity tool to run, which sessions and credentials to reset, and when to rebuild rather than reset.

2Scope and questions

Research questions

  1. Do the same edge product lines get exploited repeatedly, and how long is the gap between waves?
  2. How often does the response CISA requires go beyond applying the vendor’s fix?
  3. What do documented cases show about attackers keeping access after a device is patched or reset?
  4. How much exploited edge exposure is in products that will never receive a fix?

In scope

  • The 196 network edge and remote-access entries among the 913 added to the CISA KEV catalogue from 1 January 2023 to 10 November 2026 (catalogue version 2026.11.10), using the same edge definition as EFF-RR-2026-001
  • The wording of each entry: required action, notes, short description, the ransomware flag and the forensic triage flag
  • Five public cases of persistence through patching or reset, documented by the vendor, CISA or a named incident-response firm

Out of scope

  • Whether a vendor fix existed before exploitation began. This needs dates from each vendor advisory and is planned for a later version.
  • The installed base of each product, which would be needed to compare vendors fairly
  • Exploitation not confirmed by CISA, and any assessment of the current security of named products
  • Topics already covered by EFF-RR-2026-001: the time from disclosure to exploitation, vendor rankings and weakness types

3Methodology

We downloaded the KEV catalogue (JSON feed, version 2026.11.10) on 12 November 2026 and kept the 913 entries added from 1 January 2023. The analysis reads the edge-device rule directly from the code published with EFF-RR-2026-001, so both reports cover the same 196 entries.

KEV names one product line in several ways, for example “NetScaler” and “NetScaler ADC and NetScaler Gateway”. We grouped entries into product families using ordered rules matched against the vendor, product and vulnerability name. We then divided each family’s additions into waves: runs of additions with no gap longer than 30 days. A family that has more than one wave was exploited again after its earlier problem had been public for over a month.

For each entry we coded whether CISA wrote instructions for that entry to check for compromise (for example “check for signs of potential compromise”, hunt activities, or an emergency directive), and whether it points to CISA’s own mitigation instructions. From 11 June 2026 every new entry carries the same reference to CISA’s “Forensics Triage Requirements”. Because it appears on every entry, we report it separately and do not count it as guidance specific to edge devices. We also coded statements that a product is, or could be, end-of-life, and divided products into enterprise and consumer or small-office devices.

The persistence cases were chosen because the vendor, CISA or a named incident-response firm reported that access survived a patch, upgrade, reboot or reset, and because a primary source is public. They illustrate a mechanism and are not a sample. All coding rules and the code are published with the dataset.

Sources

SourceHow it was usedReliability
CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalogue, version 2026.11.10Every edge entry: vendor, product, vulnerability name, date added, required action, notes, short description, ransomware and forensic triage flags.Authoritative primary source. Lists only vulnerabilities with reliable evidence of active exploitation.
CISA advisories and emergency directivesAA24-060B on Ivanti Connect Secure and ED 25-03 on Cisco ASA and Firepower, used for the persistence cases.Authoritative primary source.
Vendor and incident-response publicationsFortinet PSIRT, NetScaler (Citrix) and Google Threat Intelligence Group analyses of individual campaigns.Primary sources for each case. Vendors may describe incidents involving their own products conservatively.

Review

  • Author review: Effycace Research Team, authoring team

Data availability

The coded dataset (edge-2023-2026.csv, one row per edge entry), the product family table (families.csv), every figure in this report (results.json) and the analysis code with its coding rules (analyse.txt) are free to download. The source catalogue is public, so anyone can repeat the analysis.

4Findings

Finding 1

The same doors keep opening

High confidence

The 196 edge entries fall into 69 product families. 38 families have more than one entry, and 31 were exploited in more than one wave. Those 31 families account for 148 entries, or 75.5% of all exploited edge vulnerabilities in the period. The median gap between waves was 216 days: roughly two waves a year for the most affected products.

The longest histories belong to the most widely deployed remote-access products. Citrix NetScaler had 13 entries in 7 waves between July 2023 and October 2026. Cisco ASA and Firepower Threat Defense had 10 in 7, FortiOS and FortiProxy 7 in 7, and PAN-OS 9 in 6. Cisco SD-WAN entered the catalogue only in February 2026 and already has 9 entries in 3 waves.

Repeat exploitation partly reflects a large installed base and close attention from researchers and attackers, and we do not suggest that these products are less secure than their competitors. For an owner, the practical point is different: a product line exploited once is likely to be exploited again within a year, so the next emergency should be planned for rather than treated as a surprise.

Table 1Edge product families with the most KEV entries, January 2023 to November 2026
Product familyEntriesWavesKnown ransomware useFirst addedLast added
Citrix NetScaler ADC and Gateway1373Jul 2023Oct 2026
Cisco ASA and FTD1072Sep 2023Oct 2026
Cisco IOS, IOS XE, IOS XR and NX-OS950Apr 2023Jul 2026
Cisco SD-WAN930Feb 2026Sep 2026
Palo Alto Networks PAN-OS964Apr 2024Oct 2026
Ivanti Connect Secure and Policy Secure845Jan 2024Oct 2026
Fortinet FortiOS and FortiProxy775Mar 2023Jul 2026
SonicWall SMA1000643Jan 2025Sep 2026

Base: 196 edge entries added from 1 January 2023. A wave is a run of additions to one family with no gap longer than 30 days. Families are defined by the rules in the published code; Fortinet entries that KEV lists only as “Multiple Products” form a separate family and are not shown. Source: CISA KEV catalogue version 2026.11.10, retrieved 12 November 2026.

Finding 2

Ransomware risk sits in the repeat targets

Moderate confidence

CISA records known use in ransomware campaigns for 42 of the 196 edge entries (21.4%). Almost all of them, 40, are in families exploited in more than one wave. That is 27.0% of entries in repeatedly exploited families, against 4.2% (2 of 48) in families exploited only once.

One explanation is that ransomware groups invest in a small number of products they know are widely deployed and reliably exploitable, and return to them as new flaws appear. Another is that a product that has drawn attention once is more likely to have a later ransomware link investigated and reported. The data cannot separate the two, which is why we rate this finding moderate confidence.

Either way, the result points to the same priority: internet-facing products with a history of repeat exploitation deserve the fastest response and the closest monitoring.

Figure 1Share of edge entries with known ransomware use
  • Families exploited in more than one wave (40 of 148)27.0%
  • Families exploited in a single wave (2 of 48)4.2%
  • All edge entries (42 of 196)21.4%

Base: 196 edge entries added from 1 January 2023. CISA updates the ransomware flag as evidence emerges, so recent entries are likely undercounted. Source: CISA KEV catalogue version 2026.11.10, retrieved 12 November 2026.

Finding 3

CISA increasingly asks for a compromise check, not just a patch

High confidence

Most KEV entries ask organisations to apply the vendor’s fix. A small number say more. We found 16 edge entries (8.2%) where CISA told organisations to look for compromise: to “check for signs of potential compromise”, to carry out hunt activities, or to follow an emergency directive with hunt instructions. The figure for all other entries was 6 of 717 (0.8%). Edge devices make up 21.5% of the catalogue, but 18 of the 29 entries (62.1%) that carry either a compromise check or CISA’s own mitigation instructions.

This guidance is becoming more common. It appeared on 2 edge entries in 2023 (the Cisco IOS XE web interface), none in 2024, 7 in 2025 and 9 in 2026 to 10 November. Six of the 2026 entries concern Cisco SD-WAN, under CISA Emergency Directive 26-03 and its hunt and hardening guidance.

A wider change is under way as well. From 11 June 2026 every new KEV entry, in every category, refers to CISA’s “Forensics Triage Requirements” under BOD 26-04, so the overall expectation now goes beyond patching. Within that, CISA marks 68.6% of edge entries added since that date (35 of 51) for forensic triage, against 61.3% of other entries (68 of 111). The gap is small and rests on few entries, so we place weight on the entry-specific guidance above rather than on the flag.

Table 2KEV entries carrying response guidance beyond the vendor fix, edge and other products
Guidance in the entryEdge entriesOther entries
Check for compromise, hunt, or follow an emergency directive16 (8.2%)6 (0.8%)
Points to CISA’s own mitigation instructions11 (5.6%)5 (0.7%)
Either of the above18 (9.2%)11 (1.5%)
Marked for forensic triage, entries added from 11 June 202635 of 51 (68.6%)68 of 111 (61.3%)
Entries added from 1 January 2023196717

Base: 913 entries added from 1 January 2023. The catalogue-wide reference to the Forensics Triage Requirements, present on every entry added from 11 June 2026, is not counted in the first three rows. Coding rules are published with the dataset. Source: CISA KEV catalogue version 2026.11.10, retrieved 12 November 2026.

Finding 4

A fixed device is not necessarily a clean one

Moderate confidence

CISA’s growing emphasis on compromise checks follows a series of cases in which attackers kept access to edge devices after the flaw they used had been fixed. The five below each have a public primary source. Together they cover the products behind four of the eight largest families in this report.

The mechanisms differ: stolen session tokens that stay valid (Citrix), files planted where an upgrade does not remove them (Fortinet), integrity tools that can be deceived and implants that survive a factory reset (Ivanti), rootkits in the boot process (SonicWall), and changes to read-only memory that survive reboots and upgrades (Cisco). The lesson is the same in each case. Applying the fix stops new intrusions through that flaw. It does not prove that an earlier intrusion has ended.

These cases show a mechanism, not how often it happens. They do show that the assumption behind many remediation processes, that a patched and rebooted device is back to a known good state, cannot be relied on for edge devices without a separate check.

Table 3Documented cases of access surviving a fix, upgrade or reset
ProductYearWhat survivedWhat the source advised
Citrix NetScaler (CVE-2023-4966)2023Session tokens stolen before patching remained valid after the updateTerminate all active and persistent sessions after patching
Ivanti Connect Secure2024Compromise missed by the vendor integrity checker; CISA found root-level persistence may survive a factory resetAssume persistence on compromised devices; use the updated external integrity tool
Fortinet FortiGate (SSL-VPN)2025A planted symbolic link gave read-only file access after upgrade to fixed versionsUpgrade to releases that remove the link; review configuration for compromise
SonicWall SMA 100 (end-of-life)2025OVERSTEP rootkit on fully patched devices, using credentials stolen earlierTake disk images for forensics; reset credentials and one-time-password bindings; decommission
Cisco ASA and Firepower2025Read-only memory modified to persist through reboot and system upgradeCollect core dumps; disconnect compromised and end-of-support devices

Cases selected because a vendor, CISA or a named incident-response firm reported persistence after a fix, upgrade or reset and published the finding. Sources: NetScaler (2023); CISA AA24-060B (2024); Fortinet PSIRT (2025); Google Threat Intelligence Group (2025); CISA ED 25-03 (2025, updated 2026). Full references below.

Finding 5

Some exploited devices will never be fixed

Moderate confidence

For 21 edge entries (10.7%), the catalogue says the affected product is, or could be, end-of-life. That is twice the rate for other products (5.0%). In 11 of the 21 the statement is definite; in the rest CISA uses its hedged wording that the product “could be” end-of-life. For these devices the only fix is replacement.

Almost all of this risk is in consumer and small-office equipment. 14 of the 22 consumer and small-office edge entries (63.6%) concern end-of-life products, mainly routers from D-Link (6), TP-Link (4), Zyxel (3) and ASUS (1). Only 7 of 174 enterprise entries (4.0%) do, four of them Ivanti Cloud Services Appliance version 4.6. Six of the 21 vulnerabilities were more than three years old when CISA added them, the oldest from 2014.

Such devices are rarely in a central inventory, yet they often connect remote staff, branch offices and small suppliers to corporate systems. An organisation that cannot see them cannot replace them.

Figure 2Share of edge entries for products that are or could be end-of-life
  • Consumer and small-office devices (14 of 22)63.6%
  • Enterprise devices (7 of 174)4.0%
  • All edge entries (21 of 196)10.7%
  • All other entries (36 of 717)5.0%

Base: 913 entries added from 1 January 2023. End-of-life is coded from the wording of each entry; KEV’s standard instruction to “discontinue use of the product if mitigations are unavailable” is not counted. Device class is assigned by rules in the published code. Source: CISA KEV catalogue version 2026.11.10, retrieved 12 November 2026.

Finding 6

What the catalogue does not show

Low confidence

Two common claims about edge devices are not supported by this data. The first is that edge flaws are unusually likely to need no login. Where the KEV description says either way, 79.7% of edge entries and 78.4% of other entries need no authentication, which is no meaningful difference. The description is silent for 73 edge entries (37.2%), so this could change with manual coding from vendor advisories.

The second is that edge intrusions mostly use chains of vulnerabilities. 67 edge entries (34.2%) were added on the same day as another entry from the same vendor, in 31 groups, which is consistent with chained exploitation or one campaign using several flaws. However, only 12 descriptions (6.1%) say that a flaw is chained, close to the 4.3% for other entries. Same-day additions can also reflect CISA’s working pattern, so we treat them as context rather than evidence.

Only 27 edge descriptions (13.8%) say the flaw is reached through a management or administrative interface. This is a lower bound, because many descriptions do not say which interface is affected.

Table 4Measures that did not separate edge devices from other products
MeasureEdge entriesOther entries
No authentication needed, where the description says98 of 123 (79.7%)182 of 232 (78.4%)
Description silent on authentication73 of 196 (37.2%)485 of 717 (67.6%)
Description mentions chaining12 (6.1%)31 (4.3%)
Added on the same day as another entry from the same vendor67 (34.2%)Not calculated

Base: 913 entries added from 1 January 2023. Authentication and chaining are coded from KEV short descriptions only. Source: CISA KEV catalogue version 2026.11.10, retrieved 12 November 2026.

5Recommendations

Recommendations are ordered by priority. Effort is a broad estimate for a mid-sized organisation; your own will depend on what is already in place.

#RecommendationOwnerPriorityEffortFramework reference
1Redefine closure for an exploited edge vulnerability as “patched and checked for compromise”, and record the check as evidence in the ticket.CISO with IT operationsHighMediumNIST CSF 2.0 RS.AN-03, RC.RP-03
CIS Controls v8.1 7.7, 17.4
2Write a compromise-check runbook for each internet-facing product before the next advisory: evidence to collect, vendor integrity tools, sessions and credentials to reset, and the point at which to rebuild rather than reset.Security operationsHighMediumNIST CSF 2.0 RS.MA-01, RS.AN-03
CIS Controls v8.1 17.4
3Send edge-device logs to central storage outside the device, with enough retention to investigate an intrusion that began before the advisory.Security operationsHighMediumNIST CSF 2.0 DE.CM-01, PR.PS-04
CIS Controls v8.1 8.2, 8.9, 8.10
4Review edge product families that have been exploited in more than one wave as a supplier decision at renewal, comparing alternatives on their exploitation history, integrity tooling and log export.Procurement with CISOMediumMediumNIST CSF 2.0 GV.SC-06, GV.SC-07
CISA Secure by Design
5Find and replace end-of-life edge devices, including consumer and small-office routers used by remote staff, branches and small suppliers, and require board-level sign-off for any that must stay in service.IT operations with risk ownerHighMediumNIST CSF 2.0 ID.AM-01, ID.AM-08
CIS Controls v8.1 1.1, 2.2
6When an edge product is exploited, end active sessions and rotate credentials, certificates and secrets stored on or passing through the device, even if no compromise is found.Identity and network teamsMediumLowNIST CSF 2.0 PR.AA-01, RS.MI-02
CIS Controls v8.1 6.2

6Limitations

  • The KEV catalogue lists only exploitation that reaches CISA and meets its evidence threshold, and it reflects US government visibility. It will under-represent attacks seen only in other regions, including Singapore and Asia-Pacific.
  • Each entry counts once however many attacks it represents. Repeat exploitation is measured in catalogue additions, not in victims.
  • Product families and waves depend on our grouping rules and the 30-day threshold. A shorter or longer threshold changes the number of waves but not the finding that most edge entries belong to repeatedly exploited families. The rules are published so readers can test other choices.
  • The edge definition is the one used in EFF-RR-2026-001, kept unchanged so the two reports agree. It excludes some internet-facing products a reader might count as edge, such as mobile device management servers and some Cisco entries listed only as “Multiple Products”.
  • Response guidance, end-of-life status, authentication and chaining are coded from the wording of each entry. CISA’s wording has changed over time and is not always consistent, so these measures are lower bounds.
  • The persistence cases are illustrations selected because a primary source is public. They do not show how often persistence after patching happens.
  • Installed base is not controlled for. Larger vendors appear more often partly because more of their devices are deployed.
  • 2026 covers 1 January to 10 November only. This report was reviewed by its author and has not yet been independently peer reviewed. We welcome corrections and will record them in the version history.

7How to read this report

Each finding carries a confidence level, which describes the quality of the evidence behind it. Where we estimate likelihood, we use fixed terms so that “likely” means the same thing every time.

High confidence
Based on good-quality information from several independent sources, or on a complete dataset. A high-confidence judgement can still be wrong.
Moderate confidence
Based on credible information, but with gaps, a limited sample or more than one plausible interpretation.
Low confidence
Based on scarce, fragmented or single-source information. Treat it as something to watch, not as the sole basis for a major decision.
TermProbability
Almost no chance1–5%
Very unlikely5–20%
Unlikely20–45%
Roughly even chance45–55%
Likely55–80%
Very likely80–95%
Almost certain95–99%

8References

  1. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. Known Exploited Vulnerabilities Catalog, version 2026.11.10. Retrieved 12 November 2026. https://www.cisa.gov/known-exploited-vulnerabilities-catalog
  2. Effycace Solutions. (2026). Exploited at the edge: what four years of confirmed attacks say about patching priorities. EFF-RR-2026-001. /research/reports/exploited-vulnerabilities-2023-2026/
  3. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. (2024, 29 February). Threat Actors Exploit Multiple Vulnerabilities in Ivanti Connect Secure and Policy Secure Gateways. Advisory AA24-060B. https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/cybersecurity-advisories/aa24-060b
  4. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. (2025, 25 September; updated 23 April 2026). Emergency Directive 25-03: Identify and Mitigate Potential Compromise of Cisco Devices. https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/directives/ed-25-03-identify-and-mitigate-potential-compromise-cisco-devices
  5. Fortinet PSIRT. (2025, 10 April). Analysis of Threat Actor Activity. https://www.fortinet.com/blog/psirt-blogs/analysis-of-threat-actor-activity
  6. Google Threat Intelligence Group. (2025, 17 July). Ongoing SonicWall Secure Mobile Access (SMA) Exploitation Campaign using the OVERSTEP Backdoor. https://cloud.google.com/blog/topics/threat-intelligence/sonicwall-secure-mobile-access-exploitation-overstep-backdoor
  7. NetScaler. (2023). NetScaler investigation recommendations for CVE-2023-4966. https://www.netscaler.com/blog/news/netscaler-investigation-recommendations-for-cve-2023-4966/
  8. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and partners. (2025, 4 February). CISA and Partners Release Guidance on Edge Devices (Mitigation Strategies for Edge Devices; Guidance on Digital Forensics and Protective Monitoring Specifications for Producers of Network Devices and Appliances). https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/alerts/2025/02/04/cisa-partners-asds-acsc-cccs-ncsc-uk-and-other-international-and-us-organizations-release-guidance
  9. National Institute of Standards and Technology. (2024). The NIST Cybersecurity Framework (CSF) 2.0. NIST CSWP 29. https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.CSWP.29
  10. Center for Internet Security. CIS Critical Security Controls, version 8.1. https://www.cisecurity.org/controls/v8-1
  11. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. Secure by Design. https://www.cisa.gov/securebydesign
  12. Office of the Director of National Intelligence. (2015). Intelligence Community Directive 203: Analytic Standards. Source of the probability terms used in this report.

9About this report

Author
Effycace Research Team, Effycace Solutions
Funding and interests
This report was funded by Effycace Solutions. No vendor named in it sponsored, reviewed or approved it. Counts reflect the KEV catalogue and public advisories and should not be read as a ranking of product security.
Distribution
TLP:CLEAR This report may be shared freely, with attribution.
Corrections
If you find an error, write to contact@effycace.com. Corrections are recorded in the version history below.

How to cite

Effycace Research Team (2026). Patched is not clean: repeat exploitation, compromise and end-of-life risk in edge devices (Report EFF-RR-2026-009, version 1.0). Effycace Solutions Pte Ltd. https://www.effycace.com/research/reports/edge-devices-after-the-patch-2023-2026/

Version history

VersionDateChange
1.012 November 2026First published.

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