Research report · Vulnerability research and technical analysis
Exploited at the edge: what four years of confirmed attacks say about patching priorities
An analysis of the 913 vulnerabilities that CISA confirmed as exploited between January 2023 and November 2026, for leaders and security teams deciding what to fix first.
1Executive summary
Most organisations cannot patch everything, so the useful question is which vulnerabilities attackers actually use. The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) publishes the closest thing to a public answer: its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) catalogue, which lists only flaws with reliable evidence of exploitation in the wild.
We analysed all 913 entries CISA added between 1 January 2023 and 10 November 2026, matched each one to its publication date in the US National Vulnerability Database (NVD), and coded each by product category and type of weakness. The picture is consistent: the window to patch is days, not weeks; internet-facing network devices are a growing share of what is exploited; and their flaws are mostly the preventable kind.
Key findings
Half of newly disclosed vulnerabilities that end up exploited are confirmed as exploited within a week of publication: 388 of 739 (52.5%). A quarter (26.1%) were already being exploited on or before the day they were published.
Network edge and remote-access devices (firewalls, VPNs, gateways, routers and remote-support tools) rose from 16.0% of additions in 2023 to 24.4% in 2026, and six vendors account for 56% of them.
More than half of the exploited flaws in edge devices (55.1%) are injection or authentication and access-control weaknesses, classes that secure development practice can largely prevent. Memory-safety flaws dominate in operating systems and browsers instead.
Old vulnerabilities keep being exploited: 21.7% of additions were published more than a year earlier, and 13.5% more than three years earlier. A backlog of unpatched old flaws is still a live risk.
AI and machine-learning tooling has entered the catalogue: 14 entries since May 2025, 13 of them in 2026. The numbers are small, but they show these tools are now targets in their own right.
What this means
- Boards and executives
- Ask how quickly the organisation fixes vulnerabilities that are known to be exploited, especially on internet-facing systems, and whether that time is measured. A monthly patch cycle is slower than the attacks this report describes.
- Security leaders
- Treat the KEV catalogue as a priority signal alongside severity scores, give internet-facing devices their own faster remediation target, and include old vulnerabilities in reporting rather than only new ones.
- Engineering and operations
- Know every internet-facing device and its software version, keep management interfaces off the internet, and collect logs from edge devices so that compromise can be detected if patching comes too late.
2Scope and questions
Research questions
- How quickly are vulnerabilities confirmed as exploited after they are published, and does that differ by type of product?
- Which kinds of product and which classes of weakness account for confirmed exploitation, and how is that changing?
- What should organisations with limited time and budget prioritise as a result?
In scope
- All 913 entries added to the CISA KEV catalogue from 1 January 2023 to 10 November 2026 (catalogue version 2026.11.10)
- Publication dates and weakness (CWE) classifications from the NVD for the same vulnerabilities
- Products of all vendors and all sectors; the catalogue is not limited to any country
Out of scope
- Entries added in 2021 and 2022, most of which were CISA loading historical vulnerabilities when the catalogue began, rather than new evidence of exploitation
- Exploitation not confirmed by CISA, and the number of victims or attacks behind each entry, which the catalogue does not record
- Exploitation patterns specific to Singapore or Asia-Pacific, for which there is no comparable public dataset
3Methodology
We downloaded the KEV catalogue (JSON feed, version 2026.11.10) and the NVD records for every CVE flagged as a KEV entry (NVD CVE API 2.0, hasKev query) on 11 November 2026. All 1,779 catalogue entries matched an NVD record. We then limited the analysis to the 913 entries added from 1 January 2023. CISA added 866 entries in 2021 and 2022, including 287 on a single day when the catalogue launched, so earlier years reflect the backlog rather than the rate of new exploitation.
For each entry we calculated the number of days between NVD publication and the date CISA added it to the catalogue. NVD publication is our measure of public disclosure. Where CISA added an entry on or before that date, we treat the vulnerability as exploited at or before disclosure. Timing comparisons use the 739 entries first published in 2023 or later, so that old vulnerabilities do not distort them.
Each entry was assigned to one of five product categories by written rules applied to the vendor and product names, in a fixed order with the first match winning. The rules were checked by reviewing every vendor and product combination in each category, and corrected where a rule caught the wrong product. Each entry was also assigned a weakness family from the first CWE identifier in the catalogue that appears in our mapping table. The rules, mapping table and code are published with the dataset.
Sources
| Source | How it was used | Reliability |
|---|---|---|
| CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalogue, version 2026.11.10 | Every entry: vendor, product, date added, CWE identifiers and whether use in ransomware campaigns is known. | Authoritative primary source. Lists only vulnerabilities with reliable evidence of active exploitation. |
| NIST National Vulnerability Database, CVE API 2.0 | The publication date of each CVE, used to measure time from disclosure to confirmed exploitation. | Authoritative primary source. Publication can trail a vendor’s own advisory by a short time. |
| MITRE Common Weakness Enumeration | Definitions used to group CWE identifiers into weakness families. | Standard reference taxonomy. |
Review
- Author review: Fahad Imran, author
Data availability
4Findings
Finding 1
Confirmed exploitation is being added faster each year
High confidence
After the backlog years, CISA added 187 entries in 2023 and 186 in 2024. Additions then rose to 245 in 2025, an increase of 32%, and reached 295 in 2026 by 10 November, already more than in any full year since the backlog.
The 913 entries cover 222 vendors. Microsoft is the largest single vendor with 143 entries (15.7%), which reflects how widely its software is deployed as much as its security. The long tail matters more for most organisations: 196 of the 222 vendors have five or fewer entries each, and 119 have only one, so an inventory limited to major vendors will miss much of the list.
A growing catalogue does not by itself prove that exploitation is increasing. Additions also depend on how much evidence reaches CISA and how fast it processes it. What it does show is that the volume of confirmed, actionable exploitation that defenders need to respond to has grown.
Base: all 1,779 catalogue entries. 2021 and 2022 are shown for context and are excluded from the rest of the analysis. Source: CISA KEV catalogue version 2026.11.10, retrieved 11 November 2026.
Finding 2
The window to patch is days, and for some products it does not exist
High confidence
Of the 739 vulnerabilities first published in 2023 or later, CISA confirmed exploitation of 193 (26.1%) on or before the day they appeared in the NVD, and of 388 (52.5%) within seven days. The median gap was six days.
The pattern differs sharply by product. Operating systems and mobile platforms have a median of zero days: 52.8% were exploited at or before publication. These are typically zero-days fixed in emergency updates, so the defence is fast automatic updating rather than prioritisation. Edge devices have a median of five days, with 57.7% confirmed within a week. Server and web software is slower, with a median of 16 days, which gives organisations a short but real window to act.
Confirmation by CISA comes after exploitation begins, so these figures understate how fast attackers move. A remediation target measured in weeks is behind the threat for most of this list.
| Product category | Entries | Median days | At or before publication | Within 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating systems, mobile and hypervisors | 176 | 0 | 52.8% | 70.5% |
| Browsers and desktop applications | 62 | 2 | 37.1% | 77.4% |
| Network edge and remote access | 168 | 5 | 31.0% | 57.7% |
| Enterprise server, web and developer software | 315 | 16 | 7.9% | 36.2% |
| IoT, OT and embedded devices | 18 | 48 | 0.0% | 27.8% |
| All categories | 739 | 6 | 26.1% | 52.5% |
Base: 739 entries added from 1 January 2023 whose CVE was first published in the NVD on or after that date. The IoT figure rests on few entries. Source: CISA KEV version 2026.11.10 and NVD CVE API 2.0, retrieved 11 November 2026.
Finding 3
Internet-facing network devices are a growing share of what is exploited
Moderate confidence
We classed 196 entries (21.5%) as network edge and remote-access products: firewalls, VPN and secure-access gateways, application delivery controllers, routers, SD-WAN, email security gateways and remote-support tools. Their share rose from 16.0% of additions in 2023 to 24.4% in 2026.
These devices are attractive because they sit on the internet, hold credentials and network access, and often cannot run endpoint security software, so compromise can go unnoticed. Exploitation is concentrated: Cisco (37 entries), Fortinet (20), Ivanti (16), Citrix (13), Palo Alto Networks (12) and SonicWall (11) account for 109 of the 196 edge entries (55.6%). This partly reflects their large installed base, and we do not suggest that their products are less secure than others.
CISA records known use in ransomware campaigns for 21.4% of edge entries, compared with 9.9% for operating systems and 4.9% for browsers and desktop applications. Edge devices are a common way into a network for ransomware groups.
Base: 913 entries added from 1 January 2023. Product category assigned by Effycace coding rules, published with the dataset. Source: CISA KEV catalogue version 2026.11.10, retrieved 11 November 2026.
Finding 4
Edge and server flaws are mostly the preventable kind
Moderate confidence
The type of weakness exploited depends on the type of product. In operating systems and browsers, memory-safety errors such as use-after-free and out-of-bounds writes account for 46.9% and 45.1% of entries. These are hard to eliminate in code written in C and C++.
Edge devices and server software are different. Injection flaws, which let attacker input run as commands or code, and authentication or access-control failures, which let attackers skip the login, together account for 55.1% of edge entries and 50.0% of server entries. The single most common weakness in the whole window is OS command injection (CWE-78, 64 entries). Server software also shows unsafe deserialisation (10.9%), which is almost absent elsewhere.
These classes are well understood and largely preventable through secure design, such as parameterised commands, strong input handling and authentication enforced on every request. Their persistence in security products themselves is the clearest case for asking vendors about their development practices before buying.
| Weakness family | Network edge | Server and web | Operating systems | Browsers and desktop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Injection and code execution | 31.6% | 25.9% | 3.3% | 4.9% |
| Authentication and access control | 23.5% | 24.1% | 8.5% | 3.7% |
| Memory safety | 16.3% | 2.1% | 46.9% | 45.1% |
| Path traversal and file handling | 9.7% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 6.1% |
| Unsafe deserialisation | 1.0% | 10.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Entries in category | 196 | 386 | 213 | 82 |
Base: 877 entries in these four categories, added from 1 January 2023. Columns do not total 100% because other and unrecorded weaknesses are not shown. Family taken from the first mapped CWE in each entry. Source: CISA KEV catalogue version 2026.11.10; MITRE CWE.
Finding 5
Old vulnerabilities are still being exploited
High confidence
Not everything in the catalogue is new. Of the 913 entries added since 2023, 174 (19.1%) concern vulnerabilities published before 2023, the oldest in 2004. Measured by age at the time CISA added them, 198 (21.7%) were more than a year old and 123 (13.5%) more than three years old. 40 of the year-old entries are edge devices.
Attackers return to old flaws because they still work: devices that were never updated, software that is out of support, and systems missing from inventories. CISA has confirmed known ransomware use for 26 of the 198 entries that were over a year old.
Vulnerability programmes that report only on recent issues will understate this risk. An old vulnerability newly confirmed as exploited should be treated with the same urgency as a new one.
Base: all 913 entries added from 1 January 2023 (counts 193, 195, 113, 214, 75 and 123). Age measured from NVD publication. Source: CISA KEV version 2026.11.10 and NVD CVE API 2.0, retrieved 11 November 2026.
Finding 6
AI and machine-learning tooling is now a target
Low confidence
The first AI application platform entered the catalogue in May 2025, when CISA added a Langflow vulnerability. By 10 November 2026 there were 14 entries for AI, machine-learning and data-science tooling, 13 of them added in 2026: Langflow (6, including IBM’s distribution), LiteLLM (3), and one each for MLflow, Ray, GPUStack, Marimo and the n8n workflow platform, which is widely used to build AI agents.
These tools are often deployed quickly by engineering or data teams, exposed to the internet for convenience, and connected to model API keys, data stores and other systems. That makes them valuable to attackers and easy to miss in a central asset inventory.
Fourteen entries is too few to call a trend, which is why we rate this finding low confidence. It is an early signal that these platforms belong in vulnerability management on the same terms as any other internet-facing software.
| Product | Entries | First added |
|---|---|---|
| Langflow, including IBM Langflow | 6 | 5 May 2025 |
| LiteLLM | 3 | 8 May 2026 |
| n8n | 1 | 11 March 2026 |
| Marimo | 1 | 23 April 2026 |
| Ray | 1 | 17 August 2026 |
| MLflow | 1 | 19 August 2026 |
| GPUStack | 1 | 9 November 2026 |
Base: 14 entries added from 1 January 2023 matching the AI tooling rule in the published code. Source: CISA KEV catalogue version 2026.11.10, retrieved 11 November 2026.
5Recommendations
Recommendations are ordered by priority. Effort is a broad estimate for a mid-sized organisation; your own will depend on what is already in place.
| # | Recommendation | Owner | Priority | Effort | Framework reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Match the KEV catalogue against your asset inventory automatically, and set a remediation target for exploited vulnerabilities on internet-facing systems of seven days or less. | CISO with IT operations | High | Medium | NIST CSF 2.0 ID.RA-01, ID.RA-08 CIS Controls v8.1 7.1, 7.7 |
| 2 | Maintain a complete list of internet-facing edge devices and their software versions, and remove management interfaces from the internet. | Network team | High | Low | NIST CSF 2.0 ID.AM-01, ID.AM-02 CIS Controls v8.1 1.1, 12.1 |
| 3 | Send edge-device logs to central monitoring and plan how to check a device for compromise, since patching alone does not remove an attacker who got in first. | Security operations | High | Medium | NIST CSF 2.0 DE.CM-01 CIS Controls v8.1 8.2, 13.1 |
| 4 | Report open KEV entries by age, and run a one-off sweep for exploited vulnerabilities more than a year old. | Vulnerability management | Medium | Medium | NIST CSF 2.0 ID.RA-01 CIS Controls v8.1 7.7 |
| 5 | Turn on automatic updates for operating systems, browsers and mobile devices, where most exploitation happens at or before disclosure. | IT operations | Medium | Low | NIST CSF 2.0 PR.PS-02 CIS Controls v8.1 7.3, 7.4 |
| 6 | Ask vendors of internet-facing products about their secure-by-design practices, patch timelines and KEV history before purchase or renewal. | Procurement with CISO | Medium | Low | NIST CSF 2.0 GV.SC-05 CISA Secure by Design |
| 7 | Add AI and data-science platforms to the asset inventory, keep them off the internet unless required, and require authentication. | Engineering and data teams | Medium | Low | NIST CSF 2.0 ID.AM-02 CIS Controls v8.1 2.1 |
6Limitations
- The KEV catalogue lists only exploitation that reaches CISA and meets its evidence threshold. It reflects US government visibility, so it will under-represent attacks that are seen only in other regions, including Singapore and Asia-Pacific.
- Each entry counts once however many attacks it represents. Shares in this report describe the composition of the catalogue, not the volume of attacks or the likelihood that any one organisation is targeted.
- NVD publication is a proxy for public disclosure and can trail a vendor advisory. Some timing figures will therefore make exploitation look slightly later relative to disclosure than it was.
- Product categories were assigned by rules written by one analyst and checked by manual review. Some products are borderline, such as management consoles for edge devices. The rules are published so readers can test other choices.
- CWE identifiers in the catalogue are sometimes broad or missing (7.0% of entries have none), and we use only the first mapped identifier for each entry.
- CISA updates the ransomware flag as evidence emerges, so recent entries are likely undercounted: known ransomware use is 23.0% for 2023 additions but 9.2% for 2026. Ransomware comparisons between categories should be read with this in mind.
- 2026 covers 1 January to 10 November only.
- This report was reviewed by its author and has not yet been independently peer reviewed. We welcome corrections and will record them in the version history.
7How to read this report
Each finding carries a confidence level, which describes the quality of the evidence behind it. Where we estimate likelihood, we use fixed terms so that “likely” means the same thing every time.
- High confidence
- Based on good-quality information from several independent sources, or on a complete dataset. A high-confidence judgement can still be wrong.
- Moderate confidence
- Based on credible information, but with gaps, a limited sample or more than one plausible interpretation.
- Low confidence
- Based on scarce, fragmented or single-source information. Treat it as something to watch, not as the sole basis for a major decision.
| Term | Probability |
|---|---|
| Almost no chance | 1–5% |
| Very unlikely | 5–20% |
| Unlikely | 20–45% |
| Roughly even chance | 45–55% |
| Likely | 55–80% |
| Very likely | 80–95% |
| Almost certain | 95–99% |
8References
- Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. Known Exploited Vulnerabilities Catalog, version 2026.11.10. Retrieved 11 November 2026. https://www.cisa.gov/known-exploited-vulnerabilities-catalog
- Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. Reducing the Significant Risk of Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (including the criteria for adding entries to the catalogue). https://www.cisa.gov/known-exploited-vulnerabilities
- Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. (2021). Binding Operational Directive 22-01: Reducing the Significant Risk of Known Exploited Vulnerabilities. https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/directives/bod-22-01-reducing-significant-risk-known-exploited-vulnerabilities
- National Institute of Standards and Technology. National Vulnerability Database: Vulnerability API (CVE API 2.0). Retrieved 11 November 2026. https://nvd.nist.gov/developers/vulnerabilities
- MITRE. Common Weakness Enumeration. https://cwe.mitre.org/
- National Institute of Standards and Technology. (2024). The NIST Cybersecurity Framework (CSF) 2.0. NIST CSWP 29. https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.CSWP.29
- Center for Internet Security. CIS Critical Security Controls, version 8.1. https://www.cisecurity.org/controls/v8-1
- Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. Secure by Design. https://www.cisa.gov/securebydesign
- Office of the Director of National Intelligence. (2015). Intelligence Community Directive 203: Analytic Standards. Source of the probability terms used in this report.
9About this report
- Author
- Fahad Imran, Effycace Solutions
- Funding and interests
- This report was funded by Effycace Solutions. No vendor named in it sponsored, reviewed or approved it. Vendor counts reflect the catalogue and should not be read as a ranking of product security.
- Distribution
- TLP:CLEAR This report may be shared freely, with attribution.
- Corrections
- If you find an error, write to contact@effycace.com. Corrections are recorded in the version history below.
How to cite
Fahad Imran (2026). Exploited at the edge: what four years of confirmed attacks say about patching priorities (Report EFF-RR-2026-001, version 1.0). Effycace Solutions Pte Ltd. https://www.effycace.com/research/reports/exploited-vulnerabilities-2023-2026/
Version history
| Version | Date | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | 11 November 2026 | First published. |
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